2017 Australian Open Predictions

We use our predictive model to forecast unplayed tennis matches

Update 1/27/2017 6:05 pm

Final Predictions

Winning Player Losing Player W-L %
Roger Federer (17) Rafael Nadal (9) 11-23 73%

SF Results

2/2 matches correct

Update 1/25/17 6:45 pm

SF Predictions

Winning Player (rank) Lossing Player (rank) W-L %
Roger Federer (17) Stanislas Wawrinka (4) 18-3 83%
Rafael Nadal (9) Grigor Dimitrov (15) 7-1 62%

QF Results

2/4 matches correct.

Update Monday 1/23/17 6:00 pm

QF Predictions

Winning Player (rank) Lossing Player (rank) W-L %
Roger Federer (17) Mischa Zverev (50) 2-0 93%
Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) Stanislas Wawrinka (4) 3-3 50%
Milos Raonic (3) Rafael Nadal (9) 2-6 58%
Grigor Dimitrov (15) David Goffin (11) 1-0 62%

R16 Results

7 out of 8 matches correct: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r16-match-prediction-results

Update Saturday 1/21/2017 2:19 pm

R16 Predictions

Winning Player (rank) Lossing Player (rank) W-L %
Andy Murray (1) Mischa Zverev (50) 1-0 97%
Roger Federer (17) Kei Nishikori (5) 4-2 75%
Stanislas Wawrinka (4) Andreas Seppi (89) 7-3 83%
Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) Daniel Evans (51) 0-0 81%
Rafael Nadal (9) Gael Monfils (6) 11-2 52%
Milos Raonic (3) Roberto Bautista Agut (14) 3-0 79%
David Goffin (11) Dominic Thiem (8) 4-1 52%
Grigor Dimitrov (15) Denis Istomin (117) 1-0 74%

R32 Results

12 out of 16 matches correct: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r32-match-prediction-results

Update Thursday 1/19/2017 2:33 pm

R32 Predictions

Winning Player (rank) Lossing Player (rank) W-L %
Andy Murray (1) Sam Querrey (32) 5-1 95%
Mischa Zverev (50) Malek Jaziri (56) 0-0 59%
Roger Federer (17) Tomas Berdych (10) 15-6 64%
Kei Nishikori (5) Lukas Lacko (121) 2-0 82%
Stanislas Wawrinka (4) Viktor Troicki (35) 6-0 71%
Andreas Seppi (89) Steve Darcis (71) 0-0 56%
Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) Jack Sock (20) 2-0 63%
Bernard Tomic (27) Daniel Evans (51) 0-1 71%
Gael Monfils (6) Philipp Kohlschreiber (33) 8-2 78%
Rafael Nadal (9) Alexander Zverev (24) 0-0 65%
David Ferrer (23) Roberto Bautista Agut (14) 2-0 54%
Milos Raonic (3) Gilles Simon (25) 3-1 77%
Dominic Thiem (8) Benoit Paire (47) 0-0 66%
Ivo Karlovic (21) David Goffin (11) 0-0 51%
Grigor Dimitrov (15) Richard Gasquet (18) 1-5 54%
Pablo Carreno Busta (31) Denis Istomin (117) 0-0 55%

R64 Results

Even with the big Djokovic upset, we still got 26 out of 32 matches correct, or 81%:

Results here: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r64-match-prediction-results

Update Tuesday 1/17/2017 6:39 pm

R64 Predictions

Match # Winning Player Rank Losing Player Rank W-L %
65 Andy Murray 1 Andrey Rublev 152 0-0 96%
66 Sam Querrey 32 Alex De Minaur 301 0-0 87%
67 John Isner 19 Mischa Zverev 50 2-0 81%
68 Alexander Bublik 207 Malek Jaziri 56 0-0 55%
69 Tomas Berdych 10 Ryan Harrison 82 0-0 82%
70 Roger Federer 17 Noah Rubin 200 0-0 92%
71 Lukas Lacko 121 Dudi Sela 67 1-3 51%
72 Kei Nishikori 5 Jeremy Chardy 72 3-2 77%
73 Stanislas Wawrinka 4 Steve Johnson 30 1-0 71%
74 Viktor Troicki 35 Paolo Lorenzi 43 1-0 76%
75 Diego Sebastian Schwartzman 54 Steve Darcis 71 0-0 56%
76 Nick Kyrgios 13 Andreas Seppi 89 2-0 80%
77 Jo Wilfried Tsonga 12 Dusan Lajovic 94 0-0 85%
78 Jack Sock 20 Karen Khachanov 52 0-0 66%
79 Bernard Tomic 27 Victor Estrella 103 1-0 87%
80 Marin Cilic 7 Daniel Evans 51 0-0 83%
81 Gael Monfils 6 Alexandr Dolgopolov 69 3-0 75%
82 Philipp Kohlschreiber 33 Donald Young 85 1-0 60%
83 Alexander Zverev 24 Francis Tiafoe 108 0-0 64%
84 Rafael Nadal 9 Marcos Baghdatis 36 8-1 69%
85 Roberto Bautista Agut 14 Yoshihito Nishioka 99 0-0 74%
86 David Ferrer 23 Ernesto Escobedo 131 0-0 83%
87 Gilles Simon 25 Rogerio Dutra Silva 100 0-0 85%
88 Milos Raonic 3 Gilles Muller 28 0-1 82%
89 Dominic Thiem 8 Jordan Thompson 76 0-0 71%
90 Benoit Paire 47 Fabio Fognini 48 2-0 56%
91 Ivo Karlovic 21 Andrew Whittington 194 0-0 76%
92 David Goffin 11 Radek Stepanek 102 1-0 63%
93 Grigor Dimitrov 15 Hyeon Chung 105 0-0 77%
94 Richard Gasquet 18 Carlos Berlocq 90 3-0 83%
95 Pablo Carreno Busta 31 Kyle Edmund 46 0-0 53%
96 Novak Djokovic 2 Denis Istomin 117 5-0 96%

R128 Results

We got 50 out of 64 matches correct for the R128 matches, or 78% accuracy. That’s a 5.5% lift in accuracy compared to the R128 of the 2016 Australian Open model published last week.

Results here: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r128-match-prediction-results

Original Post

We’re excited to bring you the first set of predictions of unplayed ATP matches for the 2017 Australian Open. We used an improved version of the model built for the 2016 Australian Open along with newly gathered 2016 ATP match data. With matches underway today, we’re starting off this post with the first round match predictions here:

TenniStats_2017_Australian_Open_R128_Match_Predictions.pdf

We’ll check back in during the tournament to
let you know how we did and create predictions on a round by round basis.

In the meantime, we created an “Upsets Wall”. This shows the matches where we predict the lower ranked player will win.

TS_Upsets.png

We also highlight matches where our model is predicting the winner in a near coin flip. We hope these will turn out to be interesting matches to watch and welcome your thoughts on the performance of the players.

TS_Close Matches.png

One thought on “2017 Australian Open Predictions”

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