Update 1/27/2017 6:05 pm
Final Predictions
| Winning Player | Losing Player | W-L | % |
| Roger Federer (17) | Rafael Nadal (9) | 11-23 | 73% |
SF Results
2/2 matches correct
Update 1/25/17 6:45 pm
SF Predictions
| Winning Player (rank) | Lossing Player (rank) | W-L | % |
| Roger Federer (17) | Stanislas Wawrinka (4) | 18-3 | 83% |
| Rafael Nadal (9) | Grigor Dimitrov (15) | 7-1 | 62% |
QF Results
2/4 matches correct.
Update Monday 1/23/17 6:00 pm
QF Predictions
| Winning Player (rank) | Lossing Player (rank) | W-L | % |
| Roger Federer (17) | Mischa Zverev (50) | 2-0 | 93% |
| Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) | Stanislas Wawrinka (4) | 3-3 | 50% |
| Milos Raonic (3) | Rafael Nadal (9) | 2-6 | 58% |
| Grigor Dimitrov (15) | David Goffin (11) | 1-0 | 62% |
R16 Results
7 out of 8 matches correct: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r16-match-prediction-results
Update Saturday 1/21/2017 2:19 pm
R16 Predictions
| Winning Player (rank) | Lossing Player (rank) | W-L | % |
| Andy Murray (1) | Mischa Zverev (50) | 1-0 | 97% |
| Roger Federer (17) | Kei Nishikori (5) | 4-2 | 75% |
| Stanislas Wawrinka (4) | Andreas Seppi (89) | 7-3 | 83% |
| Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) | Daniel Evans (51) | 0-0 | 81% |
| Rafael Nadal (9) | Gael Monfils (6) | 11-2 | 52% |
| Milos Raonic (3) | Roberto Bautista Agut (14) | 3-0 | 79% |
| David Goffin (11) | Dominic Thiem (8) | 4-1 | 52% |
| Grigor Dimitrov (15) | Denis Istomin (117) | 1-0 | 74% |
R32 Results
12 out of 16 matches correct: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r32-match-prediction-results
Update Thursday 1/19/2017 2:33 pm
R32 Predictions
| Winning Player (rank) | Lossing Player (rank) | W-L | % |
| Andy Murray (1) | Sam Querrey (32) | 5-1 | 95% |
| Mischa Zverev (50) | Malek Jaziri (56) | 0-0 | 59% |
| Roger Federer (17) | Tomas Berdych (10) | 15-6 | 64% |
| Kei Nishikori (5) | Lukas Lacko (121) | 2-0 | 82% |
| Stanislas Wawrinka (4) | Viktor Troicki (35) | 6-0 | 71% |
| Andreas Seppi (89) | Steve Darcis (71) | 0-0 | 56% |
| Jo Wilfried Tsonga (12) | Jack Sock (20) | 2-0 | 63% |
| Bernard Tomic (27) | Daniel Evans (51) | 0-1 | 71% |
| Gael Monfils (6) | Philipp Kohlschreiber (33) | 8-2 | 78% |
| Rafael Nadal (9) | Alexander Zverev (24) | 0-0 | 65% |
| David Ferrer (23) | Roberto Bautista Agut (14) | 2-0 | 54% |
| Milos Raonic (3) | Gilles Simon (25) | 3-1 | 77% |
| Dominic Thiem (8) | Benoit Paire (47) | 0-0 | 66% |
| Ivo Karlovic (21) | David Goffin (11) | 0-0 | 51% |
| Grigor Dimitrov (15) | Richard Gasquet (18) | 1-5 | 54% |
| Pablo Carreno Busta (31) | Denis Istomin (117) | 0-0 | 55% |
R64 Results
Even with the big Djokovic upset, we still got 26 out of 32 matches correct, or 81%:
Results here: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r64-match-prediction-results
Update Tuesday 1/17/2017 6:39 pm
R64 Predictions
R128 Results
We got 50 out of 64 matches correct for the R128 matches, or 78% accuracy. That’s a 5.5% lift in accuracy compared to the R128 of the 2016 Australian Open model published last week.
Results here: tennistats-2017-australian-open-r128-match-prediction-results
Original Post
We’re excited to bring you the first set of predictions of unplayed ATP matches for the 2017 Australian Open. We used an improved version of the model built for the 2016 Australian Open along with newly gathered 2016 ATP match data. With matches underway today, we’re starting off this post with the first round match predictions here:
TenniStats_2017_Australian_Open_R128_Match_Predictions.pdf
We’ll check back in during the tournament to
let you know how we did and create predictions on a round by round basis.
In the meantime, we created an “Upsets Wall”. This shows the matches where we predict the lower ranked player will win.
We also highlight matches where our model is predicting the winner in a near coin flip. We hope these will turn out to be interesting matches to watch and welcome your thoughts on the performance of the players.
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