2017 Indian Wells Forecasts

Blogging from the bush, we’re bringing you our latest forecasts

We are on site in the California desert, bringing you our predictions for the 2017 Indian Wells BNP Paribas Open.

Updated 3/19/2017 1:45 pm ET

Final

Winning Player (rank) Losing Player (rank) W-L %
Roger Federer (10) Stanislas Wawrinka (3) 19-3 72%

Updated 3/18/2017 2 am ET

SF

Winning Player (rank) Losing Player (rank) W-L %
Stanislas Wawrinka (3) Pablo Carreno Busta (23) 2-0 76%
Roger Federer (10) Jack Sock (18) 2-0 83%

Continue reading “2017 Indian Wells Forecasts”

2017 Australian Open Predictions

We use our predictive model to forecast unplayed tennis matches

Update 1/27/2017 6:05 pm

Final Predictions

Winning Player Losing Player W-L %
Roger Federer (17) Rafael Nadal (9) 11-23 73%

SF Results

2/2 matches correct

Update 1/25/17 6:45 pm

SF Predictions

Winning Player (rank) Lossing Player (rank) W-L %
Roger Federer (17) Stanislas Wawrinka (4) 18-3 83%
Rafael Nadal (9) Grigor Dimitrov (15) 7-1 62%

QF Results

2/4 matches correct.

Continue reading “2017 Australian Open Predictions”

Predicting the Winner: 2016 Australian Open

Creating an algorithm for tennis match forecasting

So far, we’ve covered general descriptive statistics, such as yearly attribute trends, points won distributions, and competitiveness on our blog. We build on those findings by creating a model capable of predicting ATP tennis match winners. Using historical data points, we achieve 81% accuracy in predicting match winners for the 2016 Australian Open. We delve into the development process and share our predictions below.

Continue reading “Predicting the Winner: 2016 Australian Open”

The theory of 1%

For several top players, a 1% increase in points won means cutting their ranking by half.

I recently came across an article by Craig O’Shannessey on atpworldtour.com which talked about the huge difference a 1% increase in points won can have on a players ranking. The article quotes stats from Dominic Thiem’s 2014 and 2015 seasons, in which he jumped from number 40 to number  Continue reading “The theory of 1%”

How competitive is men’s tennis?

We compare points, games, sets and other statistics from 1968 to today in order to answer how tennis has evolved.

One of the first things to consider when assessing the competitiveness of any sport is how many points are scored by opposing players and teams. In basketball, for example, a score line of 101-99 is way more competitive than 130-70, even though the total points scored is the same. In tennis, results are dictated by a scoring hierarchy (point-game-set-match), therefore, there are many ways to judge the competiveness of a match. Tracking each of these scoring numbers over the years reveals just how much the competition has evolved – or stayed the same…

By Points

share-of-points-won

We first started at the micro level Continue reading “How competitive is men’s tennis?”

How many points does it take to win?

We broke down points won and lost per match from 2005 to 2015 and found some basic winning odds. Turns out, slight advantages in points won can tip the scales significantly.

Points are the most basic scoring unit in tennis, but they do not directly determine the outcome of a match. To win a match, you must string together combinations of points into games and games into sets, etc. Certain points can be “thrown away” while others can single-handedly determine the outcome of the match. Continue reading “How many points does it take to win?”

Interactive: Tennis Stats, Height, and Age trends on the ATP World Tour

Identifying statistical trends in the men’s tennis game

As part of our data exploration series, we used available datasets, as well as our data to map an increasing trend in height and aces, and a decreasing trend in double faults since 1991.

Story2Pic1

Continue reading “Interactive: Tennis Stats, Height, and Age trends on the ATP World Tour”